Noah Pittman is the teacher for this fall’s Honors Faculty Discussion board: Marketing campaign 2024. Noah serves because the affiliate dean of enrollment for the College of Arkansas Honors Faculty. His doctorate is in public coverage, with a give attention to larger training coverage. He’s married to his stunning spouse, Pamela, they usually have two youngsters, Bennett (9) and Ella (6). When he’s not together with his youngsters at their actions, which take up most of his waking hours exterior of the workplace, you could find him shedding his voice at Arkansas Razorbacks sporting occasions.
It’s onerous to imagine that is third version of our presidential elections discussion board. Annually I count on we’re going to get a standard presidential marketing campaign and…effectively, we don’t. The rebel marketing campaign of Donald Trump in 2016 from the primary primaries by the overall election. The pandemic in 2020. This 12 months has confirmed to be no exception, with a marketing campaign that was fully upended in so many various methods over the summer time. When you advised me a 12 months or two in the past that we might enter Election Day 2024 with an excellent shut race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, I might have thought you have been nuts.
The scholars have had an extremely busy semester. We began the autumn with assignments the place they needed to interview a person who voted for Joe Biden in 2020 together with a second interview with somebody who voted for Donald Trump. These interviews have been accomplished with the intention of serving to college students perceive the reasoning behind an individual’s vote, and the way their political beliefs can evolve–or not evolve–over the course of 4 years. This 12 months’s honors discussion board has 25 college students enrolled within the course. essentially the most we’ve ever had by a good margin. With extra college students, although, this 12 months’s version of the weblog is not going to solely options evaluation on aggressive states within the Electoral Faculty, however may even analyze important races that would decide the steadiness of the U.S. Senate. Earlier than we get to those posts, listed here are some essential questions we’re pondering:
Will Harris Safe the Blue Wall? There isn’t any denying that essentially the most easy path to the White Home for Harris is thru the Midwest. Barring a significant shock, Harris successful Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania would get her to 269 votes, with a possible victory within the Nebraska Second Congressional District getting her to 270. For Trump, it’s crucial that he take not less than one in every of these three Rust Belt states whereas additionally securing aggressive states within the Solar Belt, together with North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona. On Election Evening, keep watch over if Trump takes a Rust Belt swing state or if Harris is ready to win within the Solar Belt. Both incidence would offer a powerful indication the place the election outcomes are heading.
What kind of polling error will we see in 2024? Trump is little doubt in higher place to win than he was in 2020 at the moment. The polling error that favored Trump in 2020 is usually ignored as a result of Biden nonetheless received the presidency ultimately, simply by a better margin in most swing states than was initially anticipated. Polling error is to be anticipated, however what stage of error will we see in 2024? And within the course of which candidate? We’ll discover out quickly.
What’s going to we study from exit polls this 12 months? I’ve A LOT of questions heading into this 12 months’s election. At what fee will feminine voters help Democrats this 12 months? In that very same vein, are we witnessing a gender hole forming amongst Gen Z voters? Is Harris struggling as a lot with the Hispanic vote as pre-election polling has indicated? Is larger training attainment nonetheless as huge of a predictor of celebration affiliation because it has been the previous few cycles? How essential have been matters corresponding to immigration and abortion to the typical voter? Exit polling will not be excellent, however it does give us a great indicator of what the citizens was feeling on this 12 months’s election.
What about Congress? We’ve identified for years that the U.S. Senate map in 2024 could be problematic for Democrats, who at present maintain a 51-49 majority. Republicans will certainly flip West Virginia and are sturdy favorites to take Montana, which might probably get them to 51 seats, barring an surprising Democratic flip in Texas. The massive query is can the GOP additionally achieve essential flips in states corresponding to Ohio, Arizona, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin? Republicans securing 51 seats will definitely give them the bulk come January, however it is also considered as a disappointment when 54-55 seats as soon as regarded attainable. The Home, then again, stays a toss-up. Preserve a detailed eye on key races in California, New York, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Virginia. All of those states have a number of toss ups down poll that would resolve the steadiness of energy in Congress.
And with that, listed here are our weblog posts!
Electoral Faculty: Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Maine, Maine-2nd, Michigan, Nebraska-2nd, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Texas, Virginia, Wisconsin
Senate: Arizona, Maryland, Michigan, Montana, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, West Virginia
